西宁市老年人口分布与养老资源错位研究

Study on spatial differentiation of population aging and mismatch of endowment resources in Xining City

健康中国战略下,积极应对老龄化、建立健全养老和医疗等相关设施,成为许多城市关注的问题。目前相关研究很少关注西北城市的老龄人口的空间分布及养老资源错位的现象。本研究以西宁市主城区为研究区域,基于2010-2018年西宁市公安局各街镇人口数据和兴趣点(POI)数据,选用老年人口系数、赡养率、增长率和地理集中率四个指标,利用综合老龄化指数(CAI)模型、核密度函数模型和空间错位指数模型对西宁市主城区人口老龄化空间分布及养老资源(医疗资源、老年设施)空间错位现象进行探索分析,结果表明(:1)9年间西宁市主城区人口老龄化程度不断加深,已步入老年型社会。(2)通过老龄化综合指数可知:主城区外围街镇人口老龄化增长速度大于城区中心的街道,其中小桥街道、朝阳街道、马坊街道与乐家湾镇人口老龄化最为严重,2018年综合老龄化指数增长速度超过中心城区街道,西宁市主城区人口老龄化严重程度已从中心街道向外围街镇扩散。(3)通过空间错位指数计算可得知:城中区的养老资源数量充足但过于集中,城北区的养老资源分布合理但是数量较少,行政区之间的养老资源与老年人口分布存在较大空间错位问题。

Under the Healthy China strategy, It has become a concern of many city governments to actively cope with aging of population and establish facilities for the elderly people and medical care.At present, the relevant researches for northwest cities have not paid attention to spatial differentiation of population aging and mismatch of endowment resources.Based on the population data of the streets and towns of Xining municipal public security bureau from 2010 to2018 and the data of point of interest(POI), taking the district as the basic unit, using the aging population coefficient, the elderly population support rate, the rate of the growth proportion and tempo of elderly geographical concentration of elderly population, taking CAI and the methods of kernel density estimation, spatial mismatch index to analyzes the spatial differentiation of population aging and the spatial mismatch of endowment resources(medical resources, the facilities for elderly people) and the spatial distribution of the aged population in the main urban area of Xining city.The results show that:(1) The aging of the population in Xining’s main urban areas is deepening, and it has entered the aging society in 2010 to 2018.(2) The result of CAI can be known that the population aging growth rate of peripheral district has exceeded that of central streets.The aging phenomenon is the more serious in Xiaoqiao district, Chaoyang district, Mafang district and Lejiawan district than the district of downtown, The population aging of main urban area of Xining has spread from central district to the outer edge of a particular district.(3)The result of SMI can be known that there is a large spatial mismatch between the endowment resources and the distribution of the aged population in the urban area and the northern area of the city.How to reconcile the contradiction between the supply and demand of the endowment resources and the spatial distribution of the aged population has become one of the urgent problems to be solved by the municipal government.