刘易斯拐点与城乡二元结构并存引起的思考

Reflection on the Coexistence of Lewis Turning-Point and Rural-Urban Dual Structure

按照英国经济学家刘易斯二元经济理论,随着刘易斯拐点到来,城乡二元经济就会逐步转变为一元经济。他的这个理论并没有被我国的实践所印证。我国的现实情况是,刘易斯拐点到来了,城乡二元结构还要存在很长的时间。与其他发展中国家不同,我国的城乡二元结构是通过法律法规制度化,表现为城乡二元结构体制或城乡二元体制。要用另一种制度即城乡一体化制度代替它,涉及城乡权力和利益的再分配,阻力是相当大的,改革的力度不能超越发展程度和某些群体的承受程度,使得这项改革只能谨慎小步推进,也就是采取渐进式改革方式,任重而道远。

According to the dual economy theory proposed by British economist Arthur Lewis, with the arrival of Lewis turning-point, rural-urban dual economy will gradually be transformed into unitary economy.However, his theory isn’t confirmed by the economic practice in China.The current situation in China is that while the Lewis turning-point has arrived, the rural-urban dual structure still exists and may last for a quite long time.Different from other developing countries, Chinese rural-urban dual structure is institutionalized through laws and regulations, and has become rural-urban dual structure system or rural-urban dual system.If it is replaced with another system, namely the rural-urban integration system, redistribution of rights and interests between urban and rural areas should be involved, and the resistance will be considerable in the process.The reform shouldn’t exceed the level of development and the tolerance of some groups, so the reform can only be carried out cautiously in small steps, that is to say, the gradual reform, and there is a long way to go.