金融发展、产业结构调整与就业结构变迁关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Financial Development,Industrial Structure Adjustment and Employment Structure Change

基于金融发展、产业结构调整与就业结构变迁的内在关系分析,并以1978-2017年金融发展相关比率、产业结构合理度与就业结构优化度3项指标,利用VECM模型对三者之间的动态关系进行实证检验。结果表明:三者之间存在闭环影响关系,且影响存在滞后性效应,其中,金融发展和产业结构调整对就业结构优化具有正向效应,且产业结构调整的作用更为明显,金融发展的影响滞后期更长;另外,源于我国目前金融发展体系、就业结构变迁的滞后,金融发展、就业结构的变迁对产业结构调整的影响并不显著。

This paper analyzes internal mechanism of the financial development,the adjustment of industrial structure and employment structure change.Then,the thesis used the VECM model to test the dynamic relationships among financial development,industrial restructure and employment structure optimization with the help of data from 1978 to 2017.The results show some opinions as follows:there is a cointegration relation of closed-loop effect and lag effect among the three factors;the financial development and industrial structure adjustment have a positive effect on the employment structure optimization,and the effect of the industrial structure adjustment is more apparent,the hysteresis cycle of financial development is longer.In addition,due to the lag of financial development system and employment structure changes in China,the impact of financial development and employment structure changes on industrial structure adjustment is not obvious.