先行贸易能否调节制度距离对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的空间计量分析

Does Prior Trade Moderate the Relationship between Institutional Distance and China’s OFDI?——Evidence from Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Countries along “the Belt and Road”

运用2005~2017年中国对"一带一路"沿线40个投资东道国的投资存量数据,构建空间计量模型,分析中国对外直接投资的第三国效应、制度距离对中国对外直接投资的空间效应以及先行贸易的调节作用。研究发现:无论是否考虑空间因素,中国对外直接投资均表现出明显的"政治制度接近"和"经济制度逃逸"特征,即中国更倾向于将资金投向与本国政治制度距离小而经济制度距离大的国家;先行贸易可有效促进中国开展海外投资,并降低投资过程中的政治制度障碍;投资所表现的市场寻求动机和风险规避特征较为明显,但东道国自然资源禀赋、科技发展水平和通货膨胀率等因素并未对投资行为产生显著影响。因此应建立区域协同机制,完善信息服务平台,积极开展海外贸易。

Based on a spatial econometric model,this paper analyzes the third country effect of China’ s outward foreign direct investment( OFDI),the spatial effect of institutional distance on China’ s OFDI and the moderating role of prior trade by using the data of China’ s OFDI stock of 40 countries along "the Belt and Road"from 2005 to2017. It finds that whether or not spatial factor is taken into account,China’ s OFDI shows obvious characteristics of "political institution approaching"and "economic institution escaping",in other words,China tends to invest in the countries with short political institutional distance but long economic institutional distance. Prior trade can effectively promote China’ s OFDI and reduce the political institutional distance barriers during the process;in addition,the market-seeking motive and risk-averse characteristics of investment are obvious. However,the host country’ s natural resource endowment,technological development level and inflation rate have no significant impact on China’ s OFDI.Accordingly,this paper proposes to establish regional coordination mechanism,improve information service platform and actively carry out overseas trade.