基于心理账户前景价值的投资项目多属性行为决策方法研究

Multi-Attribute Behavior Decision-Making Method for Investment Project Based on the Prospect Value of Mental Accounting

【目的/意义】针对投资项目方案多属性决策中决策者异质行为偏好信息缺失的问题,基于心理账户和前景理论的提出改进的投资项目方案多属性行为决策方法。【设计/方法】分别对效益型属性和成本型属性建立心理账户进行独立评价,并考虑决策者对收益和损失感知的非对称性、参照点、风险态度等行为参数构建不同账户的价值函数,对实数类型、三参数区间数和语言模糊数类型属性的混合评价信息进行标准化后,运用分段价值函数计算收益和损失的前景价值,最后计算专家评价的方案加权综合前景价值作为方案优选决策的依据。【结论/发现】基于心理账户前景价值的多属性行为决策方法将决策专家对不同方案属性的偏好信息纳入到决策中,能够达成满意决策。

[Purpose/Significance]Given the information loss about the heterogeneous behavior preference of decision makers in the multi-attribute decision-making of investment project,an improved multi-attribute behavior decision-making method for investment project schemes is proposed based on mental accounting and prospect theory.[Design/Methodology]The mental accounting established with benefit-type attribute and the cost-type attribute are evaluated independently.Value functions are constructed for different accounts considering the behavioral parameters,such as the asymmetry,reference points,risk attitudes of decision-maker’s perception of gains and losses.After standardizing the mixed evaluation information of real number types,three-parameter interval numbers and linguistic fuzzy number type attributes,this paper uses the piecewise value function to calculate the prospect value of gains and losses.As a result,the calculations of the weighted comprehensive prospect value of expert evaluation are taken as a basis of preferred scheme.[Findings/Conclusions]The multiattribute behavior decision-making method based on the mental accounting and prospect theory incorporates the preference information of experts on different scheme attributes into the decision-making process,thereby achieving satisfactory decision-making.