基于LUCC的承德市域生态系统服务价值演变分析与优化研究

Evolution analysis and optimization research of ecosystem service value in Chengde City,Hebei Province of northern China based on land use/land cover change(LUCC)

【目的】城市市域范围绿色空间生态系统服务价值的量化评估是国土空间规划中重要的工作基础,在价值测度的基础上对其进行演变预测,更有助于规划者了解并衡量城市市域范围内现有生态存量与未来发展趋势和潜在问题,从而预先进行规划回应。【方法】为明确承德市域土地空间利用演变对区域生态系统服务价值的影响,结合RS与GIS技术,对承德市市域范围内土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use/Land Cover Change,LUCC)演变特征进行分析,同时利用单位面积价值当量因子法对承德市域范围生态系统服务价值进行测算,在此基础上运用CA-MARKOV模型预测2026年承德市域土地利用演变趋势和生态空间存量和生态系统服务价值变化情况。【结果】承德市域生态系统服务价值总体呈现明显下降趋势。1980-2018年间(1980、1990、2000、2010、2018年,共5期)承德市域生态系统服务价值总量分别为1038.51亿、1035.93亿、1036.09亿、1009.71亿、999.36亿元。同时,模拟结果显示,2026年承德市域预测服务价值仍将处于下降趋势,价值降幅约为9.97亿元。【结论】承德市域生态系统服务价值空间维度呈现明显斑块状分布,核心服务功能集中在西北部和南部林地区域,时间维度出现显著功能缩减,核心缩减区域集中在各市县已建成区边缘区域。本研究从空间分布、时间演变和发展预测等多方面总结了承德市域生态系统服务功能演变和空间变化规律,从而为承德市域后续国土空间发展规划和管控策略的拟定提供依据。

[Objective]The quantitative evaluation of the value of green space ecosystem services in urban areas is an important work basis for land space planning.The prediction of its evolution based on the value measurement is more helpful for the planners to understand and measure the existing ecological stock,future development trend and potential problems within the urban area,so as to plan and respond in advance.[Method]In order to clarify the impact of evolution of land space utilization on the service value of regional ecosystem in Chengde City,Hebei Province of northern China,this paper combines RS and GIS technology to analyze the evolution characteristics of land use/land cover change(LUCC)space utilization in Chengde City.At the same time,the value equivalent factor per unit area was used to calculate the value of ecosystem services in Chengde City.On this basis,MARKOV model was used in this paper to predict the evolution trend of land use in Chengde City in 2026 and the changes of ecological space stock and ecosystem service value.[Result]The overall ecosystem service value of Chengde City showed an obvious downward trend.From 1995 to 2015(totally 5 periods,i.e.1995,2000,2005,2010,2015),the total values of ecosystem services in Chengde City were 103.851 billion CNY,103.593 billion CNY,103.609 billion CNY,100.971 billion CNY and 99.936 billion CNY,respectively.At the same time,the evolution simulation results showed that the overall service value of Chengde City will still be in a downward trend in 2026,with a value decline of about 997 million CNY.[Conclusion]The spatial dimension of ecosystem service value in Chengde City presents an obvious patch distribution.The core service value is concentrated in the northwestern and southern forest land area,and the time dimension has a significant function reduction.The core reduction area is concentrated in the edge areas of the built-up areas in cities and counties.This study summarized the evolution of ecological service value and spatial change rule of Chengde City from spatial distribution,time evolution and development prediction,so as to provide basis for the development planning and control strategy of the subsequent land space of Chengde City.