国内新型冠状病毒肺炎流行的空间分布趋势及相关影响因素分析

Spatial Distribution Trend Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic in China and Analysis of Its Related Factors

目的探讨影响国内新型冠状病毒肺炎流行空间分布趋势的相关因素,为疫情科学防控提供理论依据。方法根据国家统计局发布的2019年度中国各省市及湖北省各市GDP数据以及2019年度各省市人口调查样本数据,结合各省市卫生健康委员会发布的新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例数等资料,采用SPSS 20.0相关性分析和逐步线性多因素回归的方法分析各省市确诊病例数与人口、人口密度、GDP、人均GDP、老龄化比例、客运量、距武汉市距离等因素的相关性。结果此次各省市新冠肺炎感染人数与交通网络、经济活力呈正相关,与地域毗邻呈负相关;与人口密度、人均GDP和老龄化比例无相关性。结论各省市新冠肺炎的流行趋势与人口、GDP、客运量成正相关,与离武汉的距离呈负相关,这在一定程度上为疫情发展提示预警信息,为防疫、防控以及流行病学调查提供参考依据。

Objective To explore the correlation between the epidemic trend of COVID-19 and the population,population density,GDP,per capita GDP,population aging ratio,public transport passenger flow,distance from the source of disease and other factors in each province and Hubei province,so as to provide scientific guidance for epidemic prevention and control.Methods according to the National Bureau of Statistics released the 2019 annual China provinces and cities in Hubei province GDP data and 2019 provinces population sample data,combined with the provincial and municipal health committee released COVID-19 confirmed cases data with SPSS 20.0 software,the Spearman correlation analysis and stepwise linear multiple factors regression analysis,the number of confirmed cases of provinces and cities and population density of population,GDP,per capita GDP,the proportion of ageing,passenger traffic,the relevance of such factors as the distance from Wuhan.Results the number of COVID-19 infection was positively correlated with traffic network and economic vitality,but negatively correlated with geographical proximity.There is no correlation with population density,per capita GDP and aging ratio.Conclusion the epidemic trend of COVID-19 was positively correlated with population,GDP and passenger volume,and negatively correlated with the distance from Wuhan.