制造业碳排放和经济增长脱钩关系研究——基于速度和数量双重视角

Research on the Decoupling Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Manufacturing Industry:Based on Dual Perspectives of Speed and Quantity

基于速度脱钩和数量脱钩的双重视角,利用Tapio脱钩模型和环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,研究中国1987—2017年制造业碳排放和制造业经济发展的脱钩关系。结果表明:我国制造业2016—2017年、2008—2017年均为弱脱钩状态,制造业经济和碳排放呈倒“N”型关系,2017年制造业经济处于环境库兹涅茨曲线两拐点之间,未发生数量脱钩。借助“环境高山”理论可知,我国制造业处于经济增长和环境保护的“两难境地”,因此,政府需要做好经济和环境政策的长期攻坚准备。

Based on the double perspective of speed decoupling and quantity decoupling and using the Tapio decoupling model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve model,this paper researches the decoupling relationship between manufacturing carbon emission and manufacturing economic growth in China during 1987-2017.The results indicate that:manufacturing carbon emissions and manufacturing economic growth are in a weak decoupling state during 2016-2017 and in a weak decoupling state during 2008-2017,and the relation between the two is between the first inflection point and the second inflection point of the inverted N-shaped curve,and is not decoupling in quantity.With the“environmental mountain”analysis,the manufacturing industry is in a dilemma of“difficult situation”at present.Therefore,the government needs to prepare long-term battles for the economic growth and environmental protection.