基于PSR模型的三峡库区生态安全评价及动态预警研究

Dynamic Evaluation and Early Warning Analysis of Ecological Security in Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on PSR Model

城镇化与工业化高速发展造成生态环境保护与经济发展之间矛盾加剧。以长江经济带核心生态圈三峡库区作为整体研究区域,构建基于PSR的库区生态安全评价指标体系,运用层次分析法和熵值法综合评价思维,从三峡库区自然、经济、社会和生态方面选取19个指标,并计算出综合权重。通过2000—2017年三峡库区区域生态安全状况设计预警机制来进行评价和预警,客观评价三峡库区生态安全状况及其变化规律,同时对生态安全适时准确预警。研究发现,三峡库区生态安全综合指数随时间总体呈上升趋势;生态安全指数空间上整体良好,全区域生态安全综合指数呈南高北低趋势,重庆渝中区、湖北夷陵区需要警惕。

The rapid development of urbanization and industrialization leads to the aggravation of the contradiction between ecological environmental protection and economic development.This paper takes the three gorges reservoir area as the whole research area,constructs the evaluation index system of ecological security of the reservoir area based on PSR.The paper selects 19 indexes from the natural,economic,social and ecological aspects of the three gorges reservoir area and calculates the comprehensive weight by using the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method.Through the design of early warning mechanism,the regional ecological security status of the three gorges reservoir area from 2000 to 2017 is evaluated and early warned,the ecological security status and its changing rules are objectively evaluated,and the ecological security is timely and accurately warned,which can promote the coordinated development of the economic society and ecological environment of the three gorges reservoir area.It is found that the comprehensive index of ecological security in the three gorges reservoir area is on the rise with time.The overall ecological security index space is good,the comprehensive index of ecological security in the whole region is high in south and low in north,Chongqing Yuzhong district,and Hubei Yiling district need to be vigilant.