杭州市大江东产业集聚区土地利用过程模拟研究

Land Use Process Simulation in Dajiangdong Industrial Agglomeration Area of Hangzhou

以杭州大江东产业集聚区为例,利用2003、2008、2013和2018年4期卫星影像和CLUMondo模型,对2030年的土地利用类型进行多情景模拟.结果表明:(1)研究区自2010年9月确定成立以来进入快速城市化阶段,截至2018年,建设用地面积以每年517.416 hm^(2)的速度增长;未利用地和耕地受城市扩张的影响向建设用地转变;受人类活动影响,大量林地向耕地转换,耕地面积增长了699.57 hm^(2).(2)模拟预测结果表明,不同的土地利用情景对研究区未来发展产生不同的影响.其中,建设用地在不同情景下均呈现逐年增加态势,尤其在经济建设情景下,年增长速率达到了30.45%;林地和未利用地在各个情景下均呈现下降趋势;耕地面积在耕地资源保护情景下得到了很好的保护,面积呈现上升趋势.

Taking the Hangzhou Dajiangdong industrial agglomeration area as an example,basing on the satellite images of 2003,2008,2013 and 2018,this study simulates the land use types in 2030 with the CLUMondo model.The results show that since its establishment,the study area has entered the stage of rapid urbanization.By 2018,the area of construction land has increased at a rate of 517.416 hm^(2) per year.And under the influences of urban expansion,unused land and cultivated land have been rapidly transformed into construction land.At the same time,affected by human activities,a large number of forest land has been converted into cultivated land,and the area of cultivated land has increased 699.57 hm^(2).The simulation results show that different land use scenarios have different effects on the future development of the study area.Among them,construction land increases year by year in different scenarios,especially in the economic construction scenario,the annual area growth rate reaches 30.45%.Forest land and unused land show a downward trend in all scenarios.The area of cultivated land is well protected under the scenario of cultivated land resources protection,and the acreage shows an upward trend.