机场环境承载力评价与预测方法研究

Research on Evaluation and Prediction Method of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity

近年来,航空运输业高速发展,机场作为航空运输的重要枢纽,为区域间交流发展带来便捷的同时,产生的环境问题也使机场目前的运行和未来的发展处处受限。以改善机场环境承载力为最终目的,研究机场环境承载力的评价体系构建与评价预测方法。提出机场环境承载力的定义,构建机场环境承载力评价指标体系;采用熵权TOPSIS评价方法与Logistic回归模型,以南京禄口国际机场为例,评价与预测其机场环境承载力;根据评价和预测结果,为机场可持续发展提出可行性建议。

In recent years,the air transport industry has entered a period of rapid development.As an important hub for air transport,the airport has brought convenience to local and regional exchanges and also brought serious environmental problems.These problems have caused the airport′s current operations and future development to be restricted everywhere.With the ultimate goal of improving the environmental carrying capacity of the airport,this paper focuses on the construction and evaluation of system of the environmental carrying capacity of the airport.First,the definition of airport environmental carrying capacity is proposed,and the evaluation index system of airport environmental carrying capacity is constructed;then,the entropy-weight TOPSIS evaluation method and logistic regression model are proposed.Taking Nanjing Lukou international airport as an example,the airport environmental carrying capacity is evaluated and predicted;finally,based on the evaluation and prediction results,it provides feasibility suggestions for the sustainable development of the airport.