内蒙古自治区干旱脆弱性评价

Drought vulnerability assessment in Inner Mongolia

干旱带来的环境影响及经济损失,阻碍了地区的可持续发展。开展干旱脆弱性评价是合理制定区域规划与管理措施的前提条件。然而,国内目前鲜有以省或自治区为研究区域,以市级行政区域为尺度的自然-社会-经济耦合的干旱脆弱性研究。根据IPCC提出的干旱脆弱性评价模型,选取19个指标,在3个维度上(暴露度、敏感度和适应能力)对内蒙古自治区的12个盟市开展了干旱脆弱性评价。采用熵值法确定各指标权重,并用综合指数法和系统分类法计算干旱脆弱性指数并进行分类。研究结果表明,内蒙古自治区的干旱脆弱性呈现由东向西递减的趋势,与干旱脆弱性相关性最强的三个指标分别是第一产业GDP比例、人均可支配收入和第一产业从业人员比例。导致盟市干旱脆弱性的主要贡献因素为人口与人力因素和生态与水资源因素。减缓内蒙古自治区干旱脆弱性可以从加强草原保护建设和管理,合理规划盟市建设,减少人口的集中分布,调整产业结构,提供更多的非农牧就业岗位,加强职业技能培训,完善金融服务和医疗服务等方面入手,从而促进干旱区自然生态和社会经济的可持续发展。

The environmental impact and economic loss caused by drought has been an impediment to the sustainable development of local areas. Carrying out drought vulnerability assessment is an indispensable part of sustainable development assessment. However, there are few research results on the coupled drought vulnerability of nature, society and economy at the municipal administrative scale in the province or autonomous region. Based on the drought vulnerability assessment model proposed by IPCC, 19 indicators were selected from three dimensions(exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) to build an indicator system to evaluate the drought vulnerability of 12 leagues and cities in Inner Mongolia. Data was collected from Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbooks and Inner Mongolia Water Resources Bulletin. Evapotranspiration(ET) was provided in the MOD16 A2 product and precipitation(P) was provided by China Meteorological Data Service Center. The entropy method is used to determine the weight of each indicator, and the comprehensive index method and systematic classification method are used to calculate and classify the drought vulnerability index. The main outputs of this empirical analysis include vulnerability index scores, class, and maps that illustrate differences in geographical and social characteristics across Inner Mongolia. The results show that the drought vulnerability of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region presents a decreasing trend from east to west. The proportion of primary industry GDP, per capita disposable income and proportion of primary industry employees have high correlation with drought vulnerability. The main contributors to drought vulnerability in the cities are population and manpower factors, ecological and water resources factors. Reducing drought vulnerability in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region can be achieved by strengthening the protection and construction of grasslands, rationally planning the construction of cities, reducing the concentration of the population, adjusting the industrial structure, providing more non-agricultural and pastoral jobs, strengthening vocational skills training, improving financial services, medical services and other aspects, so as to promote the sustainable development of natural environment and socio-economics in dryland.