全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动--基于时变视角的理论与实证分析

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty,RMB Exchange Rate and China's Economic Fluctuation:Theory and Empirical Analysis Based on Time-varying Perspective

基于时变视角,首先构建并推导融入全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率和经济波动的Mundell-Fleming模型,从理论上分析了全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率对经济波动的时变性影响机制。其次通过实证分析证实全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与经济波动之间存在时变传导效应。研究结果表明:第一,全球经济政策不确定性对物价水平和经济增长具有时变性抑制作用,并且在长期中的时变性作用更加显著;第二,人民币汇率与物价水平和经济增长之间呈反向变动关系,物价水平和经济增长对汇率冲击响应的时变性主要体现在中期和长期;第三,在不同时点,全球经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率对于经济波动的响应不一致,响应强度与经济环境具有相关性。结合我国当下所处的经济环境,政府要考虑到全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率对经济波动的时变影响,实施时变性的政策,保证经济平稳发展。

Based on the time-varying perspective,this paper first constructs and deduces the Mundell-Fleming model that incorporates global economic policy uncertainty,RMB exchange rate and economic fluctuations.It theoretically analyzes the time-varying effect mechanism of global economic policy uncertainty and RMB exchange rate on economic fluctuations.Secondly,through empirical analysis,it is confirmed that there is a time-varying transmission effect between global economic policy uncertainty and RMB exchange rate and economic fluctuation.The results show that:(1)Global economic policy uncertainty has a time-dependent inhibition effect on price level and economic growth,and the time-varying effect in the long-term is more significant.(2)There is a reverse relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the price level and economic growth.The time-varying response of the price level and economic growth to the exchange rate shock is mainly reflected in the medium and long term.(3)At different points in time,the response of global economic policy uncertainty and RMB exchange rate to economic fluctuations are inconsistent,and the intensity of response is related to the economic environment.In combination with China's current economic environment,the government should take into account the time-varying effects of global economic policy uncertainty,RMB exchange rate on economic fluctuations,and implement time-varying policies to ensure stable economic development.