中国出口规模存在周期律吗?——基于二十世纪末以来的数据

Is There a Cyclical Scale of China’s Export?--Based on Data from late 20th Century

根据我国二十世纪末至今的月度出口数据,运用自回归模型考察了我国出口的周期运行特征。实证的结果表明,进入二十一世纪之后,我国的出口呈现出为期十年左右的中期特征、五年左右的中短期特征,以及一个季度左右的短期特征。进一步的推断认为,在今后的十年中,我国出口很可能从相对快速的增长模式转变为波幅较大的相对慢速增长模式。在今后的"双循环"运行过程中,出口将起到重要的稳定器作用。所以,我国的出口需要进一步改革阻碍提升出口产品和服务的附加值的制度性因素,要采取更加积极务实的开放政策和完善国际对话沟通机制,推动开放型世界经济的建设。

Based on China’s monthly export data from the end of the 20 th century to the present,this article uses an autoregressive model toexamines the cyclical characteristics of China’s exports.The empirical results reveal that since the 21 st century,China’sexports have shown medium-term characteristics of about ten years,the short-and medium-term characteristics of about five years,and the short-term characteristics of a quarter or so.It is further concluded that in the next ten years,China’s export is likely to change from a relatively fast growth model to a relatively slow growth model with greater volatility.The study suggeststhat exports will play an important stabilizer role in the"dual circulation"development pattern.Therefore,China’s exports need to further reform the institutional factors hindering the promotion of the added value of export products and services,to adopt a more active and pragmatic open policy and improve international dialogue and communication mechanisms to promote the construction of an open world economy.