经济政策不确定性对外贸出口的影响——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Foreign Trade Exports--Empirical Analysis Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data

利用Baker等构建的经济政策不确定性指数和2000—2018年的省际面板数据实证检验中国经济政策不确定性对外贸出口的影响效应。结论表明:经济政策不确定性的提升对我国外贸出口存在抑制效应,且随时间推移逐渐降低。经济政策不确定性对我国外贸出口的抑制效应存在地区差异和时间差异:对中西部的抑制效应强于东部;对金融危机后的抑制效应强于金融危机前;2015年中美贸易摩擦加剧这一抑制效应。进一步研究发现,经济政策不确定性通过影响企业创新抑制外贸出口。经济政策不确定性的外贸出口效应对于进一步理解中国经济政策的时间与空间差异作用具有重要的政策启示意义。

This paper uses the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.and the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2018 to empirically test the impact of China’s economic policy uncertainty on foreign trade exports.The results show that the increase in economic policy uncertainty has restraining effects on China’s foreign trade exports,and it gradually febreases over time.There are regional and time differences in this restraining effects.The restraining effecthas strongerimpacton central and west regions than on east regions.The restraining effect post the financial crisis is stronger than that before the financial crisis.Trade frictions between China and the United States intensified this restraining effect in 2015.Further research finds that economic policy uncertainty restrains foreign trade exports by affecting enterprise innovation.The export effect of economic policy uncertainty has important policy implications for further understanding the temporal and spatial differences of China’s economic policies.