南城县气候变化与极端天气研究

Study on climate change and extreme weather events in Nancheng

文章选取1961-2010年南城站发生低温、闷热、高温、雷暴、雾、降雪、霜冻和暴雨等极端天气的时间资料,根据现代气候统计诊断方法,采用最小二乘法对各种极端天气事件每年出现时间的趋势变化做线性估计,并对每年出现的极端天气时间与逐年平均温度做相关性检验。检验结果为南城县应对气温变化、制定区域发展政策和进行生态建设提供了指导作用。

Based on the data of days with low temperature,muggy heat,high temperature,thunderstorm,fog,snowfall,frost and rainstorm in Nancheng station from 1961 to 2010,according to the modern climate statistical diagnosis methods,this paper uses the least square method to make a linear estimate of the annual trend change in occurrence of various extreme weather events.And the correlation between the time of extreme weather and the annual average temperature is tested.The results provide guidance for Nancheng to deal with temperature change,formulate regional development policy and ecological construction.