供应风险与需求风险对B2C电商利润影响的差异

The Difference between Impacts of Supply Risk and Demand Risk on the Profits of B2C E-commerce

对于一个线上B2C零售商从两个供应商采购一种商品以补充两个区域仓库库存的问题,零售商可以提前采购以确保更可靠的供应,此时零售商需承担需求不确定的风险;也可以在顾客下单后再向供应商订货,此时零售商需承担一定水平的供应风险。为此,采用数学建模的方法系统分析供应风险与需求风险对零售商利润影响的差异,结果显示:在大多数情况下,零售商在需求风险下的利润效率低于其在供应风险下的利润效率,这表明需求风险通常比供应风险对零售商利润的影响更大;随着风险水平的提高,零售商在需求风险系统中的利润效率下降得更快,这意味着零售商利润对需求风险更敏感;只有当供应的不可靠水平高于一个阈值且两个区域的边际利润满足特定条件时,供应风险对零售商利润的影响才会超过需求风险的影响。

The study considers an online B2C retailer who orders from two suppliers to replenish inventories for two regional warehouses.The retailer can either order beforehand to ensure the supply capacity or order after observing the real demand.In the former,the retailer undertakes demand risk,while in the latter,he bears a certain level of supply risk.This paper compares the impacts of supply risk and demand risk on the retailer′s performance.The results show that,first,given the same risk level,in many cases,the retailer′s profit efficiency under demand risk is lower than that under supply risk.It suggests that demand risk often has a more substantial impact on the retailer′s profit than supply risk.Second,the retailer′s profit efficiency decreases faster with the increase of the risk level in the demand risk system than that in the supply risk system,implying that the retailer′s profit is more sensitive to demand risk.Only when the unreliability level of supply is higher than a threshold and the marginal profits in the two regions satisfy a specific condition,can the retailer′s performance in the supply risk system be worse than that in the demand risk system.