就业稳定性与农民工消费:理论解释与经验证据

Job Stability and Migrants Workers’ Consumption:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence

新冠疫情下我国就业受到严重冲击,农民工群体就业尤为典型,就业稳定的重要性愈加凸显。稳定的就业是否有利于农民工消费水平的提升?本文采用2016-2017年流动人口动态监测数据,使用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)估计就业稳定性对农民工消费的影响。研究发现:相比于就业不稳定的农民工,就业稳定者的消费水平显著提升,但固定工例外。原因在于就业稳定农民工的收入风险更低、在城市的长期居住意愿更强、劳动供给时间短从而闲暇时间长,这些都有利于消费水平的提升。异质性分析表明低技能、新生代农民工的消费水平受就业稳定性的影响明显,高技能、老一代农民工则不受其显著影响。对消费结构的分析表明,稳定的就业可以显著提高农民工的居住支出比重和非储蓄性保险支出占比,明显降低医药支出占比,对交通和通讯邮寄费用则无明显影响。这说明稳定就业的农民工更容易实现市民化,结束家庭两地分居的状态,实现优化消费结构的目标。本文倡导稳定且灵活的就业导向,旨在提振农民工消费水平,优化消费结构。同时,鼓励企业对农民工实行合理的带薪休假制度、国家延长法定节假日时间,促进农民工"有钱有闲"消费。

Our country’employment has been severely hit by Covid-19 epidemic, especially for the employment of migrant workers, the importance of employment stability has become increasingly prominent.Could stable employment improve migrant workers’ consumption? This article studies employment stability’s impact on migrant workers’ consumption by using data of 2016-2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey and adopting the method of 2 SLS. The results show that job stability could significantly increase migrant workers’ consumption level, expect for fixed workers. Because migrant workers with stable employment have lower income risks, greater willingness to live in the city permanently, shorten labor supply time then increase leisure time, all of these can improve the consumption level. However, the low-skilled, new-generation migrant workers’ consumption level is significantly affected by employment stability, while high-skilled, old-generation migrant workers have no such effect. Stable employment can also significantly increase the proportion of migrant workers’ housing expenditures and non-saving insurance expenditures, and significantly reduce the ratio of medical expenditures. However, there is no significant change in transportation, communications and mailing expenditures.This means migrant workers with stable employment are easier to realize citizenization, then end the state of separation and optimize the consumption structure. This article advocates the orientation of stable and flexible employment, aiming to boost migrant workers’ consumption level and optimize their consumption structure. At the same time, it is best for migrant workers to promote their "rich and leisure"consumption by implementing a reasonable paid vacation system of the enterprises and extending statutory holidays of the whole country.