基于ECM误差修正模型的财政收入与国内生产总值关系的分析

Analysis of the Relationship between Fiscal Revenue and GDP Based on ECM Error Correction Model

影响财政收入的因素有很多,包括经济、政治、文化等,而决定和制约财政收入规模的主要因素还是经济.财政收入和国内生产总值是反映国家经济综合实力的两个重要指标,为了测量这两个指标之间的相关关系,引入长期均衡模型进行相应的实证分析,并使用误差修正模型对数据分析结果做修正,最终得出中国财政收入和国内生产总值两者之间的关系,并根据研究结论提出相关的政策建议.

There are many factors affecting fiscal revenue, including economy, politics, culture, etc, but the main factor that determines and restricts the scale of fiscal revenue is economy. Fiscal revenue and gross domestic product are two important indicators that reflect the comprehensive strength of the country’s economy. In order to measure the correlation between these two indicators, a long-term equilibrium model for corresponding empirical analysis is introduced in this paper, and an error correction model is used to analyze the data. The results are revised, and finally the relationship between China’s fiscal revenue and GDP is drawn, and relevant policy recommendations are put forward based on the research conclusions.