基于改进PSO-LSSVM模型的变压器绕组热点温度预测

Prediction of Hot-Spot Temperature in Transformer Winding Based on Improved PSO-LSSVM Model

针对现有变压器绕组热点温度预测方法中存在的不足,采用收缩因子对粒子速度更新方式进行改进,保证PSO算法前期的全局搜索能力和后期的局部寻优能力,提高了算法的收敛性能;利用改进PSO对LSSVM参数进行寻优,建立基于改进PSO-LSSVM的变压器绕组热点温度预测模型。利用实际监测数据进行仿真分析,改进PSO-LSSVM的变压器绕组热点温度预测模型的预测效果优于其他方法,验证了本方法的正确性和实用性。

In view of the shortcomings of the existing hot spot temperature prediction methods of transformer windings,the shrinkage factor is used to update the particle velocity to ensure the global search ability in the early stage and the local optimization ability in the late stage of PSO algorithm,so as to improve the convergence performance of the algorithm.The parameters of LSSVM are optimized,and the prediction model of transformer winding hot spot temperature based on improved PSO-LSSVM is established.Through the simulation analysis of the actual monitoring data,the prediction effect of the improved PSO-LSSVM transformer winding hot spot temperature prediction model is better than other methods,which verifies the correctness and practicability of this method.