政治体制、经济发展与恐怖主义:来自上合组织的证据

Political Institution, Economic Development and Terrorism:Evidence from Shanghai Cooperation Organization

为进一步研究现代政治经济因素对恐怖主义的影响,本文首次以上海合作组织为研究对象,利用1990—2016年的国际面板数据,考察政治体制、经济发展与恐怖主义之间的关系。结果发现:上合组织境内,政治体制开放度刺激了恐怖事件的发生,导致民主政治风险,而经济发展却显著抑制了恐怖主义。同时,经济发展能够有效对冲民主政治风险,降低恐怖事件对政治体制开放度提升的偏效应。异质性结果显示,对于武装袭击、暗杀和爆炸等主要袭击方式,经济发展对冲民主政治风险的作用更加显著。在上合组织成立之前,经济发展对恐怖主义的抑制效应并不明显;而在上合组织成立之后,经济发展能够显著抑制恐怖事件发生,且有助于缓解民主政治风险。

This paper takes the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) as study object to analyze the relation among political institution, economic development and terrorism by employing the international panel data from 1990 to 2016. The results show that within the SCO, the openness of the political system promotes the occurrence of terrorist incidents leading to democratic political risks, while economic development significantly suppresses the terrorism. Meanwhile, economic development effectively hedges the risk of democratic reform and reduce the partial effect of terrorism incidents on the opening of the political system. The heterogeneity results show that economic development suppresses armed attacks, assassinations and explosions incidents. Before the establishment of the SCO, economic development has no significant effect on terrorism, however, economic development significantly reduces the incidents and helps to offset the risk of political institution reform after establishing the SCO.