多边金融机构如何影响PPP项目中私人部门的投资额?——来自“一带一路”沿线经济体3858个项目的经验证据

How Does Multilateral Financial Institutions Impact on Private Sector Investment Amount in PPP Projects:Empirical Evidence of 3858 Projects in Countries along the Belt and Road

基于1998—2017年45个"一带一路"沿线经济体3858个PPP项目数据,运用倾向得分匹配方法和中介效应模型,实证检验了多边金融机构影响私人部门投资额的总体效应和中间机制。研究发现:首先,多边金融机构对沿线经济体PPP项目中私人部门的投资额有显著促进作用;经过一系列稳健性检验,该结论依然成立。其次,债务融资获得、股权融资获得和风险选择均是中间机制。再次,倾向于私人付费的收益来源、PPP项目发起的政府级别和PPP项目所在国的人均GDP、金融发展水平、监管质量等,也对私人部门投资额有正向影响。最后,从运用"亚投行"等多边金融机构破解资金瓶颈、构建多主体协同支持机制、中国"走出去"企业的选址等方面提出了政策建议。

Based on the data of 3858 Public-Private Partnership(PPP) infrastructure projects in 45 countries along the "One Belt and One Road" from 1998 to 2017, the paper empirically tests the overall effect and intermediate mechanism of multilateral financial institutions on private sector investment by propensity score matching method and the intermediary effect model. The results show: Firstly, multilateral financial institutions have a significant role in promoting private sector investment. Secondly, debt financing, equity financing and risk selection plays the role of intermediary mechanisms. Thirdly, Private payment revenue resource, the contracts of PPP projects initiated by high-level governments, the per capita GDP, the quality of supervision, financial development level of the countries where the PPP projects are located also have positive impact on the private sector investment. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of "Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank" meeting the needs of infrastructure construction under the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, building the mechanism of multi-agent collaborative support for specific PPP projects, and the siting tactics of "going global" enterprises from China.