技术变革、流动人口就业结构与收入极化趋势

Technological Progress,Employment Structure and Income Polarization of Migrants in China

基于2011—2017年国家卫健委流动人口监测数据计算中国流动人口就业结构变动,并进一步考察就业结构调整对收入极化趋势的影响发现,随着人工智能等技术发展,流动人口的职业选择发生了较大变化。其中,专业技术人员和经商者占比在7年中上升幅度均超过1%,而负责人及管理者、公务员和建筑人员的比例下降均大于1%;常规操作性工作的就业占比显著下降,常规知识性工作的就业比例显著上升。就业结构的改变一定程度上导致了流动人口收入极化水平上升,而职业间收入差异可以解释收入极化水平的90%,说明就业结构对收入极化的影响不仅存在,而且不可忽视。

Using the China Migrants Dynamic Survey conducted from 2011 to 2017 by National Health Commission of the People’s republic of China,this paper firstly calculates the change of employment structure of migrants in China and discusses the reasons.Secondly,we investigate the impact of that change on income polarization of migrants.We find that the career choices of the migrants have changed greatly with the advancement of artificial intelligence and other technological changes:the proportion of professional and technical personnel,and of businessmen both increased by more than 1%in 7 years,while the proportion of entrepreneurs and managers,of civil servants and of construction personnel all decreased by more than 1%.Besides,we also find the share of routine manual jobs among migrants decreased significantly,and the share of routine cognitive jobs increased significantly.Moreover,the change in the employment structure has led to income polarization of the migrants,because they has entered into high-income or low-income occupations,and partly withdrawn from middleincome occupations.The decomposition of the DER index,which measures the degree of income polarization,further shows that income differences between occupations can explain 90%of the level of income polarization,indicating that the impact of employment structure on income cannot be ignored.