中国与“一带一路”沿线国家与地区机电产品贸易强度动态变化及其影响因素研究

Dynamic Changes and Influencing Factors of Mechanical and Electronic Products Trade Intensity between China and the Countries along“the Belt and Road”

“一带一路”倡议的提出和实施为中国与“一带一路”沿线国家与地区间机电贸易合作提供了新机遇。基于“一带一路”沿线60个国家与地区2010—2018年机电产品贸易数据,使用改进的双边显示性贸易偏好指数测度中国同“一带一路”沿线国家与地区机电产品贸易强度的动态变化,并采用扩展引力模型检验其主要影响因素。研究结果表明:中国同“一带一路”沿线国家与地区的机电产品贸易强度日益增加,且出口强度高于进口强度,周边邻国高于其他国家;技术差距、“一带一路”沿线国家与地区的市场需求、外贸开放度、政府规模、地缘优势等因素可以显著促进中国同“一带一路”沿线国家与地区双边机电产品贸易强度。

The proposal and implementation of"the Belt and Road"initiative provides new opportunities for mechanical and electronic trade cooperation between China and the countries along"the Belt and Road".Based on mechanical and electronic products trade data in 60 countries and regions along“the Belt and Road”from 2010 to 2018,the improved bilateral revealed trade preference index was used to measure the dynamic changes of mechanical and electronic products trade intensity between China and the countries along“the Belt and Road”.And the extended gravity model was used to test its main influencing factors.The research results show that the trade intensity of mechanical and electronic products between China and the countries along"the Belt and Road"is increasing,and the export intensity is higher than import intensity.China has relatively high trade intensity of mechanical and electronic products with neighboring countries.Technological gap,market demand,foreign trade openness,government scale,and geographic advantages of countries and regions along“the Belt and Road”can significantly promote bilateral mechanical and electronic products trade intensity between China and the countries along“the Belt and Road”.