基于Bass模型的中国电动自行车市场扩散分析

Analysis of China's Electric Bicycle Market Diffusion Based on Bass Model

近年来,电动自行车在中国的产销量持续下滑、大量小企业退出市场。为研究行业发展状况及上述现象产生的根本原因,首先,选择使用Bass模型对中国电动自行车市场扩散进行分析,再根据实际对模型加以改进;实证结果表明,考虑重复购买的改进模型预测更加准确;接着对产品扩散的三个重要时间点进行估算,发现市场在2014年已接近饱和,行业现处于成熟期,并在此基础上预测未来市场情况;最后,为电动自行车行业摆脱困境提供适当建议。

In recent years,the production and sales of electric bicycles in China continue to decline,and a large number of small enterprises withdraw from the market.In order to study the development of the industry and the root causes of the above phenomenon,firstly,with the Bass model we analyze the market diffusion of electric bicycle in China on actual conditions.The empirical results show that the improved model considering repeat purchase is more accurate;Three important time points of product diffusion are estimated,and finds that the market is nearly saturated in 2014 and the industry is now in the mature stage.We predict the future market situation on this basis and provide appropriate suggestions for the electric bicycle industry to get out of trouble.