资产减值信息与宏观经济预测

Assets Impairment Information and Gross Domestic Product Growth Forecasting

基于中国上市公司2008—2014年的季度数据,本文发现,全体上市公司的加总资产减值损失与未来季度的GDP增长率显著负相关,但是地方政府GDP数据操纵行为和上市公司盈余操纵行为显著削弱了资产减值信息的宏观经济预测作用。本文结论表明,上市公司的资产减值信息可以成为一个有效且及时的宏观经济先行指标,但地方政府GDP数据操纵行为和企业盈余操纵行为降低了资产减值信息的宏观决策有用性。

We investigate the link between assets impairment information disclosed by listed firms and growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product(GDP).We document a negative association between aggregate assets impairment loss and future GDP growth.The association is impaired by local government GDP manipulation and firm-level earnings management.Our study suggests that assets impairment information can serve as a valid and timely predictor of future GDP growth,while firms’earnings management and local government GDP management impair the usefulness of assets impairment information in predicting macro-economic performance.