后疫情时期的经济复苏与绿色发展:对立还是共赢

Economic recovery and green development in the post-COVID-19 period:trade-off or win-win

后疫情时期的大规模经济刺激计划引发了人们对绿色发展可能让位于经济复苏的担忧。尽管“绿色复苏”得到国内外广泛的呼吁和支持,但绿色是否意味着经济的妥协?绿色复苏可能面临怎样的挑战?这些问题的考量,对我国科学部署经济发展战略、完善顶层政策设计至关重要。基于疫情暴发以来的出行大数据、防疫管控措施等最新信息,构建细化经济复苏过程的全球疫情自适应模型,量化模拟不同复苏方案对经济、就业的拉动效应和碳排放影响。研究发现:以发展清洁能源和数字经济为主的绿色复苏方案对经济体量的拉动效应等同,甚至超过以化石能源和重工业为主的传统经济刺激方案;但前者面临的劳动力转型挑战可能拖慢经济复苏的进程。“绿色复苏”方案对我国经济体量的拉动效应比传统刺激方案高0.3%~14.8%,创造就业岗位数量变化-4%~3%,但同时需要近1亿人(约为初始就业人口总量的13%)跨行业就业,其中受疫情影响较大的中、低技能劳动者占96%以上。跨行业就业门槛和劳动者技能瓶颈可能增加劳动力流转匹配的时间成本,甚至带来“结构性失业”问题和社会不平等加剧的次生伤害。认为:经济复苏与绿色发展本质上不是对立的单选题,而是存在共赢的可能性。对“绿色复苏”在经济、就业和环境三方面正向协同效益的边界条件应有清醒认识和把握,仅仅关注经济拉动效应和创造就业岗位总量的潜在效益而忽视实现该理论效益的现实条件,可能会造成对经济刺激方案选择的误判。加强劳动力市场的灵活性、推动社会公正转型是提升经济系统韧性、实现复苏与绿色共赢的前瞻性举措。

The economic recovery packages launched by governments around the world in the post-COVID-19 period have raised concerns that green development could be shelved amid recovery.Although the idea of‘green recovery’gained strong support worldwide,questions like whether green recovery is inevitably accompanied by economic sacrifice and what challenges it faces need to be thoroughly pondered before actions being taken.Research for these questions is not only qualitatively but also quantitatively crucial for the formulation of economic recovery policies.Based on the latest information on travel data and epidemic control measures,an Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model is applied to the simulation of post-COVID-19 economic recovery processes,assessing the influence of different recovery plans on economy,employment and carbon emissions.The findings show that green recovery plans targeting clean energy and digital economy lead to comparable or even higher economic growth than the traditional ones characterized by fossil energy and heavy industry investment.Nevertheless,the challenge of reemployment faced by the green recovery may slow down the economic recovery process.Compared to the traditional plan,the‘green recovery’scenarios lead to economic growth by 0.3%~14.8%and job growth by-4%~3%.But it requires trans-sectoral reemployment for nearly 100 million people(about 15%of the initial labor market scale),96%of whom are middle-and low-skilled workers who are most seriously affected by the pandemic.The barriers to reemployment,like the mismatch between skills and jobs,may increase the time and expense of hiring and training the new workforce.Such barriers thus aggravate structural unemployment and social inequity and bring secondary harm to the vulnerable.This paper points out that economic recovery and green development are not mutually exclusive but can achieve win-win results with preconditions.It is also crucial to bear in mind that solely focusing on the potential mutual benefits of economic growth and job creation while ignoring the preconditions for benefits realization could lead to misleading decisions.Increasing labor market flexibility and promoting social justice and equity are forward-looking strategies to strengthen the resilience of the economic system and to achieve win-win results for economic recovery and green development.