“一带一路”煤电投资会引发“债务陷阱”效应吗?——基于双重差分的理论假设与实证检验

Will China’s Investment in Coal-fired Power Projects Trigger a“Debt Trap”Effect in Countries Along“Belt and Road”?——Theoretical Hypothesis and Empirical Analysis Based on a DID Method

2013年“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国企业和金融机构成为“一带一路”沿线国家煤电投资建设的主要推动力量。在全球低碳绿色发展转型背景下,煤电投资经济可行性不断下降,资产“搁浅”风险将迫使依靠贷款或融资方式建设煤电项目的东道国面临债务负担加重的后果。基于双重差分法的实证研究发现,中国“一带一路”煤电投资不会引发“债务陷阱”效应,但是显著提升了短期债务占债务存量的比重,该结论通过了平稳趋势检验与安慰剂检验。中国企业和金融机构在做好投资项目风险评估与管理的同时,应减少或避免煤电等高碳锁定的投资项目,助力绿色“一带一路”倡议的实施,协同推进联合国2030年可持续发展目标的实现。

China’s“Belt and Road”Initiative has been the main driving force for the coal-fired power projects investment since 2013.Under the background of global low-carbon and green development transformation,the economic feasibility of coal investment is declining,and the risk of“stranded assets”will force the host country to rely on loans or financing to build coal-fired power projects to face the consequences of increased debt burden.Though China’s investment in coal-fired power projects does not trigger a“debt trap”effect,it significantly improves the proportion of short-term debt to total debt stock.The conclusion is verified by a parallel trend test and a placebo test.China’s enterprises and financial institutions should intensify risks assessment and management as well as reduce or avoid investment in carbon intensive projects and promote the transformation of green investment,contributing to the“Green Belt and Road”initiative and the United Nations 2030 sustainable development goals at the same time.