中国制造业出口增长二元边际及影响因素研究——基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据

Research on Dual Margins and Influencing Factors of Export Growth of Chinese Manufacturing Industry——Based on the Data of the Countries along the Belt and Road

文章采用CEPII BACI数据库中2003-2018年HS-02-6分位数据,研究中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口二元边际特征及其影响因素。结果发现:中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口主要沿集约边际增长,其平均贡献率在2018年达到77.92%;在沿线六大市场中,对东南亚地区制造业出口集约边际上升趋势明显、扩展边际增长潜力巨大;进口国经济规模与基础设施对集约边际和扩展边际均产生正向影响,可变贸易成本与制度质量有显著负向影响且对扩展边际影响程度更大,固定贸易成本与外部冲击对集约边际影响为负而对扩展边际的影响不显著。需促进制造业产品出口多样化、加强出口策略针对性,并进一步提高贸易便利化水平。

Based on the HS-02-6 quantile data from 2003 to 2018 in CEPII BACI database,this paper studies the dual marginal characteristics of China’s manufacturing exports and its influencing factors on the countries along the Belt and Road.The study has found that China’s manufacturing exports to the countries along the Belt and Road mainly increased along the intensive marginal growth,and its average contribution rate reached 77.92%in 2018.Among the six major markets,the marginal trend of intensive ex⁃port to Southeast Asia is obvious,and the potential for expanding marginal growth is huge.The economic scale and infrastructure of importing countries have a positive impact on both intensive margin and expanded margin,while variable trade costs and institu⁃tional quality have a significantly negative impact on expanded margin.Fixed trade costs and external shocks have a negative im⁃pact on intensive margin and no significant impact on expanded margin.We should promote the export diversification of manufac⁃turing products,strengthen the pertinence of export strategies and improve the level of trade facilitation.