基于蒙特卡罗的地铁车辆段工艺设备投标价格模拟

Simulation of Bidding Price for Metro Depot Process Equipment Based on Monte-Carlo

介绍了福州地铁机电设备价格评标办法,利用福州市轨道交通5号线及4号线一期工程工艺集成一采购项目的投标数据,建立预测模型,进行蒙特卡罗模拟,预测评标基准价,并对影响评标基准价的参数进行了敏感性分析。结果表明利用历史数据的分布进行评标基准价的蒙特卡罗模拟能够高度接近真实的评标基准价。最高限价、投标人报价、投标厂家数是影响评标基准价的3个参数。

This article introduces the method of evaluating bid price of Fuzhou metro electrical and mechanical equipment,using the bid data of Fuzhou Rail Transit Line 5 Phase1 as well as Line 4 Phase 1 project depot process equipment part I integrated procurement,establishing a predictive model,performing Monte-Carlo simulation,predicting the baseline price for bid evaluation,and conducting a sensitivity analysis on the parameters that affect the baseline price for bid evaluation.The results show that the Monte-Carlo simulation using the distribution of historical data to evaluate the baseline price for bid evaluation can be highly close to the actual baseline price for bid evaluation.The price ceiling,the bidder's quotation,and the number of bidders are the three parameters that affect the baseline price for bid evaluation.