经常账户研究的百年回顾:均衡、暂时失衡与持续失衡

A Century Review on Current Account:Balances versus Temporary and Sustained Imbalances

本文立足三个经常账户核算等式,回顾了过去一个世纪中经常账户决定的研究。本文认为,20世纪90年代中期之前的弹性分析法、吸收分析法、M-F模型、经常账户跨期均衡分析法和新开放经济宏观经济学方法等侧重考察暂时性的经常账户失衡,近年的研究则转向了经常账户持续失衡的讨论。研究发现,尽管经验证据并不普遍支持某种理论或理论假说,但预算盈余和实际汇率与经常账户余额分别呈现出统计上稳健的正相关和负相关关系,而近年来日益引起重视的金融发展、金融深化及人口结构因素与经常账户并没有表现出统计上稳健的相关性。本文最后对双赤字假说的经验检验及如何从人口结构和企业部门角度拓展已有研究提出了建议。

Based on three current account identities,the paper surveys the literature on current account in the 20th century. It finds that the approaches before mid-1990s-elasticity approach,absorption approach,M-F model,intertemporal approach,and new open macroeconomics etc.-primarily focus on the temporary imbalances of current account. However,recent literature has shifted its focus to the sustained imbalances. It also finds that although empirical evidence does not support any theories or hypotheses, budget surplus is positively and real exchange rate is negatively correlated with the current account. While financial development,financial depth and demographic factors,which have attracted increased focus in recent years,fail to correlate with the current account statistically robustly. Lastly,this paper gives suggestions to test the twin deficit hypothesis and extend current research from the perspectives of demographic structure and firm department.