基于一次差分预报原理的常用钟差预报模型效果分析

Effect Analysis of Common Prediction Models Specific to Satellite Clock Bias Based on the Principle of Single Difference Prediction

基于15 d的精密卫星钟差数据,从不同角度全面分析6种常用钟差预报模型(LP模型、QP模型、GM模型、SA模型、ARIMA模型、KF模型)基于钟差一次差分预报原理的预报效果,得到以下结论:1)采用钟差一次差分预报原理,可以提高LP模型、SA模型、GM模型及KF模型对于GPS卫星钟差的3 h预报精度,提高QP模型和ARIMA模型对于ⅡF Rb钟的3 h预报精度,提高LP模型和GM模型在6 h和12 h预报中的精度,提高ARIMA模型在6 h、12 h和24 h预报中的精度;2)基于钟差一次差分预报原理的预报结果与卫星及其星载钟类型有关,对于GPS BLOCKⅡF Rb钟,该预报原理可以提高6种模型的短期预报精度,特别是对GM模型、LP模型和ARIMA模型预报效果的改善最为显著;3)对于3 h和6 h的预报,采用钟差一次差分预报原理的LP模型(DLP模型)对应的RMS值都最小,即DLP模型的预报精度最高,说明钟差一次差分数据更适合一次多项式模型的短期预报。

Based on the 15-day precise satellite clock bias(SCB)data from different aspects,we comprehensively analyze the prediction effect before and after using the SCB’s single difference prediction principle for six common prediction models,including the linear polynomial(LP),the quadratic polynomial(QP),the grey(GM),the spectrum analysis(SA),the time series ARIMA(ARIMA),and the Kalman filtering(KF)models.Accordingly,the following conclusions are drawn:1)Using the principle can improve prediction accuracy.Specifically,they are the LP model,SA model,GM model and KF model used in the 3 h prediction for GPS SCB,the QP model and ARIMA model used in 3 h prediction forⅡF Rb clock SCB,the LP model and GM model used in 6 h and 12 h prediction,the ARIMA model used in 6 h,12 h and 24 h prediction.2)The prediction results of the principle are related to the types of satellites and their onboard clocks,and for GPS BLOCKⅡF Rb clocks,based on the prediction principle,the short-term prediction accuracy of the six models can be improved,especially for GM,LP and ARIMA models.3)For the prediction of 3 h and 6 h,the RMS value corresponding to the DLP model(the LP model after using the principle)is the smallest,that is,the prediction accuracy of the DLP model is the highest,indicating that the single difference data of SCB is more in line with the short-term prediction of the LP model.