中国城市异速生长的空间异质性及作用机理研究

Measurement and Contributing Factors Analysis of Regional Differenceto Urban Man-land Allometric Growth in China

中国城市化高速发展,使其城市人地矛盾出现日益激化现象。人地关系的协调发展与有限资源的可持续利用,将直接影响到社会经济健康持续发展。结合生物学异速生长方程,利用反映器官相对生长速度的异速生长系数来表征城市人口与土地的相对生长速度。整合中国293个地级及以上城市面板数据,运用空间探索性数据分析方法与夏普利值分解法对中国异速生长系数区域差异空间异质性特征及成因进行系统测定。研究结果发现:中国各地级市异速生长系数的空间自相关性较强,“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚态势显著。中国大量城市处于第一象限H-H高高集聚区,多分布在中国的东中部地区,主要为土地显著扩张型和土地明显扩张型城市。城市地理区位和土地市场化程度两个影响因素相互助力,共同改变城市人地异速关系现状。其中土地市场化率对异速生长系数的贡献度最高,达43.89%,是主要影响因素;行政区位对异速生长系数的贡献度达16.19%,是次要影响因素。政策建议东部发达地区合理安排不同用地性质土地,结合土地置换,提高土地利用效率,使有限的稀缺土地效用最大化发挥。中部地区赶超区加快实施存量建设用地挖潜力度,并积极调整产业结构,促进产业转型升级。西部后进区加快土地市场化建设进程,完善西部土地利用规划,避免土地盲目开发与使用。

Under the background of China’s current rapid urbanization process,the government’s“driven”urbanization,the formation of large areas of“Slums”,the increasingly prominent contradiction of“hollowing out”of rural settlements,and the emergence of a series of problems such as“villages in cities”all reflect the increasingly intensified phenomenon of urban man land contradiction.The coordinated development of man land relationship and the sustainable utilization of limited resources will directly affect the healthy and sustainable development of social economy.In this context,a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the regional differences of allometric growth coefficient in China and the four plates of East,Middle,West and Northeast China have a positive significance to clarify the overall change law of allometric growth coefficient and the spatial-temporal characteristics of the coordinated relationship between human and land,and to coordinate the harmonious development of human and land and the healthy and sustainable development of economy in various regions.Based on the allometric growth equation,the Shapley value decomposition method of panel data and regression equation of 293 prefecture level cities in China from 2006 to 2018 was used to systematically.In order to calculate the causes of regional difference of allometric growth coefficient in China.The results show that the spatial autocorrelation in different regions is significant,and the agglomeration trends of“high-high”and“low-low”are significant.A large number of cities in China are located in the H-H agglomeration area in the first quadrant of the Moran scatter map.They are mainly distributed in the eastern and central regions of China.Urban administrative location and land marketization rate are two main factors affecting allometric growth coefficient.The contribution of land marketization rate to allometric growth coefficient is 43.89%,which is the most influential factor.Administrative region contributes 16.19%to the allometric growth coefficient,ranking second level.The two factors help each other to change the current situation of urban man-land relationship.The policy suggests that the eastern developed areas should reasonably arrange the land with different land use nature,and combine with land replacement to improve land use efficiency and maximize the utility of limited scarce land.The central region’s catching up and surpassing areas should speed up the implementation of the potential degree of the stock construction land,actively adjust the industrial structure,and promote the industrial transformation and upgrading.Western backward areas should speed up the process of land market construction,improve the land use planning in the west,and avoid blind land development and use.