基于系统动力学的贵州省体育产业布局调整与优化策略

Research on the Adjustment Strategy of Sports Industry Layout in Guizhou Province Based on System Dynamics

“健康中国”战略将促使体育产业在国家经济舞台上崭露头角,承担着为人民创造健康幸福,刺激新经济增长点的重任。贵州省秉承“绿水青山就是金山银山”的发展理念,出台优惠政策发展体育产业促进产业结构的转型升级。采用定性分析和定量建模相结合的方法,通过构建贵州省体育产业布局的系统动力学模型并对模型进行趋势仿真和政策模拟,结果显示:贵州省体育产业的规模将不断壮大,带来的经济效益会越来越好,但成为贵州省的优势产业还有一定差距;政策模拟指出贵州体育产业布局的重要影响因素包括人均体育消费、政策引导、人力资源、体育资源等,但目前尚未形成规划合理的布局。基于贵州省体育产业的发展现状以及模型仿真结果,提出产业布局的调整策略包括:壮大体育市场,拉动体育消费热情;加强政府政策引导和财政投入;落实人才强体战略,培育优秀体育人才;完善体育场馆和运动基地以及加强它们的配套设施建设等。研究结果不但可以为优化贵州体育产业布局提供政策参考,也可以为其他地区的体育产业布局研究提供借鉴。

The strategy of Healthy China will promote the sports industry to emerge on the national economic stage.It shoulders the responsibility of creating health and happiness for the people and stimulating the new economic growth point.Guizhou Province adheres to the development concept which is that the Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,and published preferential policies to vigorously support the development of sports industry and promoted the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.By combination of qualitative analysis with quantitative modeling,we constructed the system dynamics model of the distribution of sports industry in Guizhou Province,and simulated the trend and policy of the model.The results showed that the scale of sports industry in Guizhou Province will continue to grow,and the economic benefits will be better and better,but it is still hard to be a dominant industry in Guizhou Province.Policy simulation pointed out that the important influencing factors of industrial layout include the sports consumption per capital,policy guidance,human resources,sports resources and so on,and it is non-reasonable layout at present.Based on the current situation of the development of sports industry in Guizhou Province and the simulation results of the model,we put forward the adjustment strategies of the industrial layout,which included to strengthen the sports market,stimulate sports consumption enthusiasm,strengthen government policy guidance and financial input,implement the strategy of talent strengthening,cultivate excellent sports talents,improve sports venues and sports bases,as well as strengthen their supporting facilities.The research results can not only give policy reference for optimizing the distribution of sports industry in Guizhou,but also provide reference for the research of the distribution of sports industry in other areas.