“以退为进”:特朗普政府阿富汗战略转型的逻辑

Retreat for the Sake of Advancing:The Logic Behind the Transition of Trump Administration’s Afghanistan Strategy

为了尽快解决阿富汗问题,特朗普政府制定了以三大核心利益和四大重要支柱为主要内容的阿富汗战略并根据形势的发展将内容和手段由"施压"调整为"促和"。特朗普政府阿富汗战略的转型是为其全球战略服务的。为了实现资源与目标的动态平衡,国家实力相对衰落的美国急于从阿富汗撤军以集中有限的战略资源应对大国战略竞争。但是由于阿富汗问题的复杂性以及自身战略所存在的弊端,特朗普政府的阿富汗战略依然面临着严峻的挑战:阿富汗政府的利益在美塔和平协议中难以体现,特朗普政府与阿富汗塔利班之间的互信难以构建,阿富汗政府与阿富汗塔利班之间的分歧难以弥合。只有实现阿富汗内部的真正和解、构建符合各方利益的政治架构,凝聚区域内大国的力量智慧,阿富汗问题才能得到妥善解决。

In order to solve the Afghan problems as soon as possible, the Trump administration made the Afghanistan strategy, which highlights America’s three core interests and four core pillars. Its contents and means were changed from "exerting pressure" to "promoting peace" depending on the situation. The transition of Trump administration’s Afghanistan strategy serves its global strategy. In order to achieve the dynamic balance between resources and goals, the United States, whose national strength is relatively declining, is eager to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in order to concentrate limited strategic resources to cope with the strategic competition of big powers. However, given the complex situation of Afghanistan and the shortcomings of the strategy itself, the Trump Afghanistan strategy faces a number of severe challenges: little consideration of the Afghan government’s interests in the US-Taliban Peace Deal, difficulty in building mutual trust between the Trump administration and the Afghan Taliban, and the dispute between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban. Only by reaching a real reconciliation within Afghanistan, building a political structure in line with the interests of all parties, and putting together the strength and wisdom of the great powers in the region, can Trump administration’s Afghanistan strategy be effective.