灰色GM(1,1)模型在上饶市用水需求预测中的应用研究

Application research of GM(1,1) grey model in water demand prediction in Shangrao City

根据2003—2018年上饶市用水量数据,将其分为农业、工业、生活、生态四类进行数据分析,其中农业用水位于主导,工业、生活用水次之。根据灰色理论分别建立不同用水部门的GM(1,1)模型,并对所建模型进行了残差检验和后验差检验。检验结果表明生活用水、工业用水为1级精度,生态用水为2级精度,农业需水模型精度差,需要进行残差修正。通过修正后的模型对上饶市各部门未来需水量进行了预测,结果表明上饶市未来各部门的需水情况均呈现出逐步增加的趋势,工业需水和生活需水增加比例尤为明显,而农业需水则增长缓慢。

According to the water consumption data of Shangrao City from 2003 to 2018,the water is divided into four categories, namely, agricultural water, industrial water, domestic water, and ecological water.The data analysis suggests that the agricultural water consumption is leading, followed by industrial and domestic water consumption.Based on the grey theory, the GM(1,1)models of different water departments were established respectively, and the residual error test and the posterior difference test of the built model were carried out.The test results show that the domestic water and industrial water are at Level 1 accuracy, and the ecological water is at Level 2 accuracy.The agricultural water demand model has poor accuracy and needs to be corrected for residuals.The revised model predicts the future water demand of various departments in Shangrao City.The results show that the future water demand of all departments in Shangrao City presents a gradual increase trend.The proportion of industrial water demand and domestic water demand increase is particularly obvious, while agriculture water demand is growing slowly.