气温和降水对银杏超小卷叶蛾发生的影响及预测模型构建

Effects of temperature and precipitation on the occurrence of Pammene ginkgoicola Liu and construction of prediction model

基于江苏省泰州市2007—2020年气候资料和银杏超小卷叶蛾Pammene ginkgoicola Liu发生数据,运用Pearson相关性分析和线性回归分析法,分析气温和降水因子对银杏超小卷叶蛾发生影响,建立虫害发生率的回归预测模型。结果表明:银杏超小卷叶蛾发生率与羽化和孵化期平均降水量呈极显著正相关关系(P<0.01),与平均气温呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05);羽化和孵化期降水量是影响银杏超小卷叶蛾发生的最关键因子;蛹期、滞育期气温和降水量对该虫发生率无显著影响。利用羽化和孵化期平均降水量可以预测银杏超小卷叶蛾发生率,为5月中上旬防治关键期制订相应的防治预案提供参考。

Based on the meteorological data and the occurrence data of Pammene ginkgoicola Liu in Taizhou from 2007 to 2020,Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression analysis were used to comprehensively analyse the effects of temperature and precipitation on the occurrence of P.ginkgoicola,and regression prediction model on incidence was constructed.The results showed that the average precipitation during emergence and hatching stage had an extremely significant positive correlation with the incidence of P.ginkgoicola(P<0.01).The average temperature during emergence and hatching stage had a significant negative correlation with the incidence(P<0.05).The average precipitation during emergence and hatching stage was the most critical factor affecting the occurrence of P.ginkgoicola.The temperature and precipitation in pupal stage and diapause period had no significant effect on the incidence.The average precipitation during emergence and hatching stage could be used to predict the occurrence rate of P.ginkgoicola,formulated corresponding prevention plan for the critical period of prevention in the early to middle May.