农业支持保护补贴对农户种粮意愿的影响分析——以广东、湖南、湖北、江西、安徽五省为例

Analysis on Impact of Agricultural Support and Protection Subsidies on Farmers’Willingness to Grow Grain——Take Guangdong,Hunan,Hubei,Jiangxi and Anhui as examples

2016年我国施行了农业补贴政策“三补合一”改革,将种粮直接补贴、良种补贴和农资综合补贴合并为农业支持保护补贴,以期进一步提高农民的种粮积极性。基于改革前后农业支持保护补贴影响农户种粮意愿作用机理的比校分析,以我国南方地区5个种粮大省291份农户调研数据为基础,运用Logistic二元回归模型构建农业支持保护补贴对农户种粮意愿的影响评价模型,探究农业支持保护补贴与农户种粮意愿之间的关系,得到以下主要结论:(1)农业支持保护补贴的了解程度未能对农户种粮意愿产生影响作用,主要原因是农业支持保护补贴金额不能有效激励农户种粮积极性;政策落实不到位、政策了解不全面等。(2)年龄(x1)对农户的种粮意愿有显著的负影响;户主是否是主要农业劳动力(x5)对农户的种粮意愿显著正影响。提出加强补贴力度、规范土地流转登记制度、加强政策宣传力度,引导青年人返乡务农的对策建议。

In 2016,China implemented the reform of agricultural subsidy policy of merging the subsidies for improved crop varieties,direct subsidies for grain farmers and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural materials into agricultural support and protection subsidies in order to further improve farmers’enthusiasm for grain planting.Based on the comparative analysis on the effect mechanism of agricultural support protection subsidies before and after the reform on farmers’willingness to grow grain,291 farmers from five major province of grain production in southern China are surveyed,the impact assessment model of agricultural support protection subsidies to grain on farmers’willingness is established using the binary Logistic regression model,and the relationship between agricultural support protection subsidies and farmers’willingness to grow grain is explored.The following main conclusions are:(1)the understanding of agricultural support protection subsidies do not produce an impact on farmers’willingness to grow grain.The main reasons are that the amount of agricultural support and protection subsidy can not effect ively stimulate the enthusiasm of grain farmers,the policy implementation is not in place,and the understanding of policies is incomplete.(2)Age has a significant negative impact on farmers’willingness to grow grain.Whether they are the main agricultural labor force has a significant positive impact on farmers’willingness to grow grain.The countermeasures and suggestions are put forward including strengthening the subsidy intensity,standardizing the l and transfer registration system,strengthening the policy publicity intensity,and guiding the youth to return to their hometown for farming.