电动自行车交通事故严重度影响因素分析--以舟山市为例

Analysis of the Factors Influencing Traffic Accidents Severity Involving Electric Bicycle--an Example from Zhoushan City

为了分析电动自行车交通事故致因,预防重大事故及减少事故伤害后果,收集舟山市2015—2020年电动自行车交通事故数据,构建有序logisitic模型分析电动自行车骑车人受伤严重程度的显著影响因素。模型参数估计结果显示,7个自变量对电动自行车事故严重度有显著影响,“老年人”、“工人”、“农民”、“坡道或弯道”、“碰撞运动车辆”、“其他单车事故”、“机动车未按规定让行”和“电动自行车未按规定让行”,8个因素对电动自行车骑车人受伤严重程度有显著的正向影响关系。研究结果为相关管理部门针对电动自行车制定交通事故预防对策,以及采取相应技术手段减轻事故后果的研究具有参考价值。

In order to analyze the causes of traffic accidents of electric bicycle,prevent major accidents and reduce the consequences of accident injuries,the data of electric bicycle traffic accidents in Zhoushan City from 2015 to 2020 are collected,and an orderly logistic model is constructed to analyze the significant factors affecting the severity of electric bicycle cyclists'injuries.The model parameter estimation results show that the seven independent variables have a significant impact on the severity of electric bicycle accidents.Eight factors have a significant positive impact on the severity of injuries to electric bicycle cyclists,such as"elderly","worker","farmer","ramp or curve","collision with moving vehicles",“other bicycles”,“motor vehicles failing to give way according to regulations”and“electric bicycles failing to give way according to regulations”.The research results have reference value for relevant management departments to formulate traffic accident prevention countermeasures and take corresponding technical measures to mitigate the consequences of accidents.