户外端子箱操作人因可靠性及其风险评价

Human reliability and risk assessment of outdoor terminal box operation

为正确评价人为因素对户外端子箱失效的影响,利用CREAM(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method)模型的共同绩效条件分析端子箱操作过程中人的行为机理以及行为可靠性因素;应用SLIM(Success Likelihood Index Method)模型计算人为失误概率,并采用比例故障模型计算户外端子箱自身的故障率;以某断路器端子箱为例进行验证。结果表明:研究案例的人为失误概率为1.56%,设备故障率为0.84%,系统的风险值为10.7%,系统的风险等级为3;从概率的角度说明事故发生原因中人为因素的影响更大。因此,从行为可靠性影响因素层面对人为失误概率进行调控,可使户外端子箱操作人因可靠性得到提高,系统的风险等级随之降低。

In order to correctly assess the influence of human factors on the failure of outdoor terminal box,the common performance conditions of the CREAM(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method)model was used to analyze the human behavior mechanism and behavioral reliability factors of the terminal box operation process.Moreover,the SLIM(Success Likelihood Index Method)model was used to calculate the probability of human error,and the proportional hazard model was used to calculate the own failure rate of outdoor terminal box.A circuit breaker terminal box was taken as an example to conduct the verification.The results showed that the human error probability of the case was 1.56%,the device failure rate was 0.84%,the risk value of system was 10.7%,and the risk level of system was 3.From the perspective of probability,the influence of human factors were greater among the causes of accidents.Hence,adjusting the probability of human error from the level of behavioral reliability influencing factors can improve the human reliability of outdoor terminal box operation,thus reduce the risk level of system.