新冠肺炎疫情下的高校复课综合风险评估

Comprehensive risk assessment method for resuming classes in universities during COVID-19 epidemic

为评估新冠肺炎疫情下的高校复课综合风险,辅助高校进行复课组织决策,探讨一种高校复课风险评估方法。首先,引入压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型,分析各要素互相影响机制,并建立高校复课新冠肺炎疫情综合风险评估指标体系;然后,利用风险的致灾因子与受灾体的脆弱性衡量疫情综合风险度,提出一种高校复课新冠疫情风险的评估方法;最后,以西安市某高校为例,验证风险评估模型的可行性和有效性。结果表明:本模型能准确评估高校复课新冠肺炎疫情综合风险;学校所在地疫情风险等级、人员管控措施、学校应急演练与评估开展状况分别是P、S、R系统的主要影响因素,应重点关注。

In order to assess comprehensive risk of resuming classes in universities and assist them in making decisions during outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic,a risk assessment method for resuming classes in universities was explored.Firstly,PSR model was introduced to analyze interaction mechanism between each element,and a comprehensive risk assessment index system for class resumption during the epidemic was established.Then,hazard factors and vulnerability of affected body were used to measure comprehensive risk of the epidemic,and an evaluation method for such activities in universities was proposed.Finally,with a university in Xi’an as an example,feasibility and effectiveness of the risk assessment model was verified.The results show that this model can accurately assess comprehensive risk of resuming classes in universities when faced with the virus.Moreover,risk level of school location,personnel control measures,status of school emergency drills and evaluation are main influencing factors of P,S,and R systems respectively,which should be paid attention to.