评估滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性的研究范式

A Research Paradigm for Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands to Sea Level Rise

滨海湿地是海陆交界的生态过渡带,也是对气候变化极为敏感的、脆弱的生态系统,海平面上升对全球滨海湿地构成了严重威胁。为了精确预测未来海平面加速上升背景下滨海湿地的变化趋势,有必要深入开展滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性评估研究。概述了评估滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性的研究范式,评估过程包括4个步骤:确定滨海湿地的高程资本;分析滨海湿地高程相对海平面上升的变化趋势;揭示控制高程变化的地表和地下过程;使用前3个步骤中的数据校准和验证模型,预测未来滨海湿地对海平面上升的响应。相关研究将为应对气候变化的滨海湿地适应性管理提供决策支持。

Coastal wetlands are ecosystems between terrestrial and marine ecosystems,which provide many ecosystem services for human beings,but they are also very sensitive to climate change.Sea level rise threatens coastal wetlands around the globe.Developing the capacity to assess the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in order to understand and predict if they will be able to build vertically and survive rising sea levels is essential.We outline four steps for assessing wetland vulnerability to sea level rise:(1)determine the elevation capital of tidal wetland systems;(2)determine wetland accretion and elevation trends relative to sea level rise;(3)determine the surface and subsurface processes controlling elevation change;and(4)use the data from steps 1-3 to calibrate and validate models for projecting future wetland responses to climate change and sea level rise.Our research would inform decisions for the management and adaptation of coastal wetlands to current and future climate change.