进口食品社会关注度专家评分一致性的统计学研究

Statistical Study on the Consistency of Expert Ratings of Public Concern on Imported Foods

近年来,随着对外贸易的快速发展,我国已成为食品进口大国。对进口食品的品质进行有效监管是关系到国计民生的重大问题。对不同食品的安全风险进行准确的评估,并据此制定有针对性的监管措施并合理地配置监管资源是保证进口食品安全的重要举措。同时,由于社会舆论对食品的安全性极为关注,对不同品类食品的社会关注度进行评价,并将评价结果纳入进口食品安全监管的整体框架是非常必要的。本文研究了在德尔菲法的框架下通过专家评分来进行食品社会关注度评价的问题。通过对专家评分历史数据的统计分析和建模,并结合该实际问题的具体特点和业务需求,提出了对"专家评分一致性"进行度量和判定的新方法,为德尔菲法的实际应用提供了明确的操作规范和有力的技术支撑,较好地克服了传统方法主观性强、敏感度不足等缺陷。相关方法在我国食品安全监管实践中得到了实际应用,起到了预期的效果。

With the rapid growth of international trading between China and the rest of world,China has become a major food importer in the international market.Effective inspection on imported food has been becoming a critical issue related to the national welfare and the people’s livelihood.To guarantee the safety of imported foods,we need to make inspection plans and allocate inspection resources wisely based on effective assessment of safety risks of different kinds of imported foods.As food safety is a big concern of general public in China,it is necessary to evaluate the public concern on different types of foods and incorporate this dimension into risk assessment of imported foods to improve performance of the inspection system.In this paper,we studied practical problems in assessing public concern on imported foods via expert scoring under the framework of the Delphi method.Based on insights obtained from exploratory analysis on historical expert rating data,a new statistics to measure the consistency of expert ratings and a novel framework to judge whether experts reach to an agreement are proposed to overcome challenges in practical application of the Delphi method.Specifying a concrete data-driven operating rule to implement the Delphi method in practice,the proposed framework avoids subjective choice of key parameters of the Delphi method.Compared to the traditional ways to implement the Delphi method,the new approach is more sensitive to weak signals on disagreement among experts.Applied to business practice of the inspection of foods imported to China,the proposed methods perform reasonably well as expected.