基于GIS的地震滑坡危险性分析研究——以伊犁地区为例

RISK ANALYSIS ON SEISMIC LANDSLIDES BY GIS:TAKE YILI AREA AS AN EXAMPLE

通过对伊犁地区地貌、地质构造、历史地震和地质灾害分布的研究,运用Logistic回归模型方法,分析伊犁地区地貌、地层岩性、地形坡度等地震滑坡影响因子,采用ArcGIS的空间分析特性和SPSS软件的统计功能,得到伊犁地区地震滑坡危险性模型和滑坡危险性分布图。认为伊犁地区地震滑坡危险性较高的地区主要位于特克斯县、尼勒克县、巩留县、新源县境内,较低的地区位于霍城县、昭苏县和察布查尔锡伯自治县境内。并且极高危险区面积占伊犁地区总面积的1%,高危险区面积占6%,中危险区面积占18%,低危险区面积占39%,极低危险区分区面积占37%。该成果可以为大震现场调查、灾后重建、规划选址等方面提供参考依据。

After studying the geomorphology,geological structure,historical earthquakes and geological disasters in the Yili area,we analyze the geomorphology,stratum lithology,terrain slope and other seismic landslide influencing factors by logistic regression model method.Using the spatial analysis characteristics of ArcGIS and the statistical function of SPSS software,the seismic landslide risk model and landslide risk distribution map in Yili area are obtained.It is studied that the areas with higher earthquake landslide risk in the Yili area are mainly located in Tekes County,Nileke County,Gongliu County,and Xinyuan County,and the lower areas are located in Huocheng County,Zhaosu County and Chabuqal Xibo Within the autonomous county.In addition,the area of extremely high risk area accounts for 1%of the total area of Yili area,the area of high risk area accounts for 6%,the area of medium risk area accounts for 18%,the area of low risk area accounts for 39%,and the area of extremely low risk area accounts for 37%.The results can provide a reference for the field investigation of the earthquake,post-disaster reconstruction,and site selection.