中国玉米全要素生产率增长分解与空间收敛性

Decomposition and spatial convergence of TFP growth of Chinese maize

基于1979—2018年中国19个玉米主产省的成本收益面板数据,运用Hicks-Moorsteen生产率指数测算了玉米全要素生产率(TFP)增长情况,并在此基础上使用空间杜宾模型对其收敛性进行检验。结果表明:(1)1979—2018年中国玉米TFP年均增长率为2.20%,前沿技术进步是玉米TFP增长的主要驱动力;(2)中国玉米TFP增长及其动力机制存在显著的空间差异,并且绝大多数省份都表现出技术进步与技术效率恶化并存的"单驱动"型增长特征;(3)中国省际间玉米TFP增长存在着显著的空间收敛趋势,并且由于空间外溢效应的存在,使得各省玉米TFP增长收敛的速度减慢,收敛周期延长。

Based on the balanced panel data in 19 provinces from 1979 to 2018,this study uses Hicks-Moorsteen productivity index to measure the growth of total factor productivity(TFP)of maize.A spatial dobbin model is used to test its spatial convergence.The results show that:(1)The average annual growth rate of maize TFP from 1979 to 2018 is 2.20%,and the cutting-edge technological progress is the main driving force.(2)There are significant spatial differences in TFP growth and its dynamic mechanism in China.Maize productions in most provinces show the"single drive"type growth characteristic,which is coexisted with the deterioration between technological progress and technical efficiency.(3)There is a significant spatial convergence trend of inter-provincial maize TFP growth in China.Because of the existence of spatial spillover effect,the growth rate of maize TFP is slowed down and the convergence period is prolonged.