正规信贷还是非正规信贷提升了农户家庭福利?——基于倾向得分匹配方法的研究

Research on the Effect of Formal Credit and Informal Credit on the Improvement of Rural Households’ Welfare

基于2016CFPS的农户数据,采用PSM方法对两种信贷渠道(1)(正规信贷与非正规信贷)的家庭福利效应进行分析,结果显示:正规信贷对农户家庭的整体福利效应明显高于非正规信贷,尤其在家庭总收支及农户创业方面;除农业收支以外,正规信贷的家庭福利效应均比较显著;而非正规信贷仅倾向于支持发生重大事件的家庭或者农业生产家庭,其福利效应不显著。进一步的异质性讨论表明,正规信贷对东、中部地区和非农家庭的福利效应较强;虽然正规信贷更倾向对农业生产或西部地区农户家庭提供贷款,但对这些家庭的福利提升效果还不明显。本文结论将为进一步完善农村信贷政策提供参考。

Based on the rural data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS2016),this paper uses the Propensity Score Matching(PSM)method to analyze the households’ welfare effects of two kinds of credit channels(formal credit and informal credit).The results show that,the overall welfare effect of formal credit is significantly higher than that of informal credit,especially for total household income and expenditure and entrepreneurship.Except for agricultural income and expenditure,the households’ welfare effect of formal credit is relatively significant;while the informal credit only tends to support the family or agricultural production family with major events,and its welfare effect is not significant.Further discussions on the heterogeneous impacts show that the welfare effect of formal credit is significantly strong for farmers in the eastern and middle China and for non-agricultural households.Although formal credit is more likely to provide loans to rural families in agricultural production or western regions,the welfare effect of these families is not obvious.The conclusions of this paper provide references for further improving the rural credit policy.