基于SD模型的装配式建筑项目风险管理研究

Research on Risk Management of Prefabricated Building Projects Based on SD Model

采用风险分解结构法识别装配式建筑项目在全生命周期各阶段可能存在的风险因素,并结合系统动力学(SD)方法分析风险因素的逻辑关系,建立风险识别反馈图和风险流程图,对项目各阶段的风险因素进行综合识别,并运用模糊层次分析法对项目各阶段存在的风险因素评价打分,识别项目各阶段的关键风险因素,并给出应对措施,为促进我国装配式建筑的健康发展提供指导和参考。

This paper uses the risk decomposition structure method to identify the risk factors that may exist in each stage of the whole life cycle of the prefabricated construction project,analyzes the logical relationship of the risk factors combined with the system dynamics(SD)method,establishes the risk identification feedback chart and risk flow chart,comprehensively identifies the risk factors in each stage of the project,and uses the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to analyze the risk factors in each stage of the project.In order to provide guidance and reference for promoting the healthy development of prefabricated buildings in China,identifies and gives the key risk factors and countermeasures in each stage of the project.