基于模糊故障树方法的脐带缆可靠性分析研究

Reliability analysis of umbilical based on fuzzy fault tree theory

脐带缆作为水下生产系统的“神经生命线”,是水下生产系统的关键一环,其可靠性问题越来越受到关注。影响脐带缆可靠性的事件具有随机性,目前缺乏对这些随机事件发生概率的统计,难以直接对其可靠性进行定量分析。基于模糊数理论和故障树结合的方法对脐带缆可靠性进行分析,首先获得引起脐带缆失效的40个最小割集及底事件重要度排序。其次采用基于模糊集理论的定量分析对脐带缆故障树系统中的底事件进行统计计算,得到各底事件的失效概率,最终计算出顶事件概率,并得出导致脐带缆失效的主要因素依次为护套/铠装失效、钢管失效、电缆失效,为脐带缆的安全运行提出适当的建议。

As an important part of underwater production system,the reliability of umbilical has attracted more attention.However,it is known that faults and accidents always happen randomly by the failure analysis of the umbilical,and there is no such probability statistics about these events,so it is difficult to establish an accurate mathematical model for quantitative analysis of its reliability.In this paper,the reliability of the umbilical is analyzed based on the fuzzy number theory and fault tree method.Firstly,the 40 minimum cut sets that cause the failure of the umbilical and the importance ranking of the bottom events are obtained.Secondly,based on the quantitative analysis of fuzzy set theory,the bottom events in the umbilical fault tree system are calculated statistically,and the failure probability of each bottom event is obtained.Finally,the top event probability is calculated,and the main factors that lead to the failure of the umbilical are successively sheath/armor failure,steel pipe failure and cable failure,which provides appropriate suggestions for the safe operation of the umbilical.