安徽省人均GDP与城镇化率相关回归分析

Relative Regression Analysis of Per Capita GDP and Urbanization Rate in Anhui Province

针对安徽人均GDP与城镇化率关系,选取2003年~2017年省城镇化率与省人均GDP数据,先用Excel描述性统计,再用SPSS进行二次曲线回归和指数模型拟合.为验证模型,判断人均GDP的对数数值与省城镇化率数值满足协整关系,得到两变量稳定且长期维持促进关系.选取2017年安徽16个市城镇化率、市人均GDP以及13个城镇化指标,使用R软件对16个市进行聚类,再对城镇化指标因子分析,易得综合得分.最后将市人均GDP、市城镇化率与城镇化指标提取的5个主因子逐步回归,得到结论,对于发展水平高的城市,若仍单独推进城镇化反而会减缓经济发展,此时需选取其他促进经济发展的措施,如加强公园绿地建设、增加个人资产净收入,提高精神文明建设,达到社会经济健康发展的目标.

This paper studies the regression analysis of per capita GDP and urbanization rate in Anhui Province.The data of urbanization rate and per capita GDP in Anhui Province from 2003 to 2017 are selected.First,Excel descriptive statistics is used,and then SPSS is used for quadratic regression and exponential model fitting.In order to validate the model,we judge that the logarithmic value of per capita GDP and the urbanization rate of the province satisfy the co-integration relationship,and obtain a stable and long-term promotion relationship between the two variables.Selecting the urbanization rate,per capita GDP and 13 urbanization indicators of 16 cities in Anhui Province in 2017,using R software to cluster 16 cities,and then factor analysis of urbanization indicators,16 cities can easily get comprehensive scores(see Table 14).Finally,the five main factors extracted from per capita GDP,urbanization rate and urbanization indicators are stepwise regressed.It is concluded that for cities with high level of development,if urbanization is still promoted alone,economic development will be slowed down.At this time,other measures to promote economic development need to be selected,such as strengthening park green space construction and increasing net personal assets.Income and so on,improve the construction of spiritual civilization,to achieve the goal of healthy social and economic development.