承德市冬季气象要素与呼吸系统疾病关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Meteorological Elements and Respiratory System Diseases of Chengde in Winter

利用承德市2016、2017年冬季(12月—次年2月)逐日气象资料和同期呼吸系统疾病门诊资料,采用舒适度指数公式和多元线性回归方法,分析呼吸系统疾病与舒适度指数及气象要素的关系,并建立呼吸系统疾病发病人数的预报方程。结果表明:承德市冬季呼吸系统疾病发病人数女性明显多于男性;寒冷、干燥、大风、降水少等因素易于引发呼吸系统疾病;舒适度指数分析发现,天气愈冷发病人数愈多,滞后时间愈短;发病人数与平均气温、最低气温、最高气温、相对湿度呈明显负相关,与平均气温和最低气温相关系数较高,分别为-0.261、0.237;呼吸系统疾病对气象因素变化的响应无明显滞后效应;应用多元线性回归方法建立了呼吸系统疾病发病人数的预报方程,经检验,预报方程具有较好的预报能力。

The relationship between respiratory system diseases,comfort index and meteorological element is analyzed based on meteorological data and respiratory system diseases outpatient data of Chengde in winter(December to next February)from 2016 to 2017 by using multiple linear regression method,and the forecast equation is established.The results show that,the number of respiratory system diseases males are more than females significantly of Chengde in winter.Factors such as cold,dryness,high winds,and little precipitation are likely to cause respiratory diseases.Analysis of comfort index is found that,the colder weather,the more persons,and the shorter lagging time.The number of respiratory system diseases is negatively correlated with average temperature,minimum temperature,maximum temperature,relative humidity,and especially the factors of average temperature and minimum temperature.The response of respiratory diseases to changes in meteorological factors has no obvious lag effect.The forecast test indicates the forecast equation is good.